MPC
Research Projects (2008-09)

Identifying Number

MPC-310

Project Title

Evacuation Modeling for Small to Medium Sized Metropolitan Areas

University

North Dakota State University

Project Investigators

Shawn Birst and Mark Lofgren

Description of Project Abstract

Evacuation is considered to be the major protective action used in cases of regional emergencies. An essential element of any evacuation plan is a carefully prepared transportation plan, where accurate preplanning adds to the effectiveness of the evacuation process. The main objective of evacuation planning is to identify the best evacuation routes, traffic management measures, and provide estimates of the time needed to evacuate the at-risk population. Although individual agencies and departments may have plans or procedures for several evacuation scenarios, a coordinated effort between neighboring jurisdictions may not be well defined.

The Fargo-Moorhead metropolitan area has a population of approximately 175,000 people, which makes it the 182 largest metropolitan area in the nation (2000 Census). The top 50 metropolitan areas in the U.S. have populations greater than 1 million people, while the F-M metro area is considered to be a medium sized MPO (population 50,000 to 200,000). Research has shown that few studies have addressed or performed evacuation modeling for small to medium urban areas.

Reasons for evacuating may result from man-made and natural disasters. Some events, such as flooding, provide a relatively long time line for relocating population compared to unexpected events such a hazardous material spills. At the present time, key stakeholders such as emergency management, law enforcement, fire departments, and transportation agencies are highly trained and focus has been on general disaster planning and mock drills. However, area specific evacuation modeling or evacuation simulation would greatly benefit these stakeholders in understanding the demands that would be placed on transportation assets and how these assets may be best utilized in the event of a disaster.

This project will facilitate effective use of the transportation system assets to support emergency management functions, including expedited evacuation and recovery efforts. The emphasis of the project is on coordination among key stakeholders in the effort. A specific exercise will be to apply transportation models to enhance evacuation planning and simulate various evacuation alternatives to optimize transportation system functions. This project will be useful in developing a framework for analyzing the critical transportation network elements and provide feedback on selected evacuation scenarios. The results of the project will provide key stakeholders and the public with an elevated awareness and ability to conduct a safe and timely evacuation.

Project Objective

This research aims to develop a core evacuation coordination group. Central in facilitating this group is a traffic analysis exercise to assist stakeholders in making informed decisions regarding evacuation for select emergency scenarios. Specific objectives include the following:

• Create a stakeholder group consisting of emergency management and traffic operations representatives from the Fargo-Moorhead area.
• Define case study for evacuation modeling in consultation with the stakeholder group, including scenario selection, model scope/capabilities, and parameter definitions/values.
• Demonstrate the evacuation modeling process and their data requirements that:
  1. Utilize available traffic data and transportation models for MPOs
  2. Incorporates the transportation network performance and human behavior characteristics
  3. Identify traffic management strategies, including signal control alternatives, intelligent transportation systems (ITS) devices, etc., to improve the efficiency of the evacuation process
  4. Assess system sensitivity through optimization solutions.
• Provide guidance on the evacuation time estimates for emergency scenarios based on the available transportation assets, traffic management strategies, and public response.

Project Approach/Methods

A case study will be used to understand responsibilities and roles in metro evacuation scenarios. The evacuation will use transportation analysis models and will incorporate scenario development, transportation assets, traffic management strategies, and a survey of public response to evacuation scenarios.

MPC Critical Issues Addressed by the Research

11. Traffic Operations and Management (traffic management, travel behavior, and dynamic traffic assignment for modeling evacuation modeling).

9. Hazardous Materials (#3, logistics of emergency response).

Contributions/Potential Applications of Research

This project will provide an application of evaluation modeling for small to medium sized MPOs. The research approach will include existing transportation data and models already at the disposal of MPOs, as well as incorporating a human behavior to estimate the transportation system performance under emergency conditions. Results from this project may be used to assist other MPOs in developing evacuation plans.

Technology Transfer activities

The project report will be shared with interested DOTs and MPOs in the MPC region. A presentation/seminar will be developed for the TLN. A presentation and research paper will be submitted to TRB

Time Duration

July 1, 2008 – June 30, 2009

Total Project Cost

$100,000

MPC Funds Requested

$50,000

TRB Keywords

Evacuation, travel demand management, traffic simulation, dynamic traffic assignment, intelligent transportation systems